- There is a raft of postings on this subject at http://www.jsmineset.com/ going back a few days. I am sure ZeroHedge and MaxKeiser and GlobalResearch and others must have addressed the subject but no time available here to follow-up. -
COFER data sure helps me keep a view from above the mêlée.
- Thanks, bart, for opening up a wider world to me than the BDI reveals by itself. Here is a current Harper Petersen graph that seems to support the view from the BDI perspective :
but the point I am making is that both indices are close to their all-time lows whether in 2002 or 2008.
Granted that shipping rates are as much a function of the glut in available ships as they are a function of demand for them, shipping rates do reflect an important facet of the world economic condition.
A better view may be had from a graph of all transportation fuel sales by volume, not price. Find me that and I will abandon the BDI and HARPEX in a New York minute. -
Here's all four indexes I track, short and longer term... and you got my basic points too.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,040 Location: Here_&_Now Karma: 19
Re: World Reserve Currency Policy « Result #5 on Jan 25, 2012, 4:48am »
- There is a raft of postings on this subject at http://www.jsmineset.com/ going back a few days. I am sure ZeroHedge and MaxKeiser and GlobalResearch and others must have addressed the subject but no time available here to follow-up. -
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,040 Location: Here_&_Now Karma: 19
Re: ChartsGalore « Result #6 on Jan 25, 2012, 4:38am »
- Thanks, bart, for opening up a wider world to me than the BDI reveals by itself. Here is a current Harper Petersen graph that seems to support the view from the BDI perspective :
but the point I am making is that both indices are close to their all-time lows whether in 2002 or 2008.
Granted that shipping rates are as much a function of the glut in available ships as they are a function of demand for them, shipping rates do reflect an important facet of the world economic condition.
A better view may be had from a graph of all transportation fuel sales by volume, not price. Find me that and I will abandon the BDI and HARPEX in a New York minute. -
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,825 Karma: 19
Re: World Reserve Currency Policy « Result #7 on Jan 24, 2012, 1:17am »
I realize that several important things have happened lately with respect to international commerce bypassing the world's reserve currency, but this item stands out for me because it is precisely what I was told by a friendly gentleman from the Indian government over a cup of tea on a boat in China in 2010. It was one of the most fascinating conversations of my life, and I kick myself for not exchanging names.
Formula : no jobs >>> no income >>> no spending >>> no inventory needed >>> no shipping needed >>> no pricing power for ships. -
Yo d0000000000000000d... long time... ;-)
Keep in mind that the BDI only measures bulk dry cargo... and it has been *wildly* volatile too. 11,771 in mid 2008, 672 in late 2008 and ~4200 in late 2009 - about 840 today.
The Shanghai container index for example has been very stable for months, and the Harpex (primarily North Atlantic) has likely stopped its drop (high almost 800 in late 2010, about 400 now) as of the past 6-8 weeks.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,825 Karma: 19
Re: ChartsGalore « Result #10 on Jan 20, 2012, 1:49am »
Apologies. I've been on the road. Will post early next week, after the Vancouver Gold Show.
Jim Willie's latest for subscribers came out last night. It's humungous, and I haven't read it yet, but one paragraph stands out near the top: Quote:
"Europeans do not see what is coming. Watch for February 21st and then again for March 20th as turning point dates. The United States of America could very well cease to exist in the way you have known it after that date. February 21st is to be a date where this planet will get a fresh new program downloaded. This will mark the beginning of a monumental cleansing process that will not be over until it done. This will embrace and engulf all and everything and everyone."
I wonder if he's talking about Iran ripple-effect. Europe halting its Iranian oil imports speaks to me of new American funding for Europe via the IMF ("You scratch my back, I scratch yours.") Maybe things start going 'boom' in March. It wouldn't be the first time. "Nuclear capability" seems to be the new "Yellowcake." Check another entry on the old PNAC shopping list.
Anecdotally, real estate in my region (Western Canada) is finally definitely peaked, even collapsing in some hotspots. I was in Whistler again (ski resort north of Vancouver: think thousands of cramped 1990s time-shares) and there are no buyers. Realtors have agreed not to put up signs for their listings, because there would be no place to walk on the sidewalks if they did. Speculators are panicking. Local real estate boards seem completley out of touch, continuing to use words like "stable" and "moderating." Good luck with that.
It's hard to read tea leaves when they're not all in the same cup.
Nigh on impossible, imo, because today there are many cups, most of them contain leaves but only some are orange pekoe cut black tea AND all the cups are a blur since they are in Brownian motion.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,825 Karma: 19
Re: ChartsGalore « Result #12 on Jan 13, 2012, 12:35am »
Good chart. Point taken.
Quote:
The conditions may be similar but the market reactions/manipulations may be far different.
Your perspective is sobering as ever.
Wonder how much of this has to do with liquidity concerns, comparative currency 'strength,' Maund-esque too-neat stand-alone 'deflation,' or outright withdrawal like that espoused by Ann Barnhardt. The sharp downshift in Open Interest seems to be a puzzle for many long timers. I read somewhere that very big hands are simply closing positions and taking their business elsewhere. It's hard to read tea leaves when they're not all in the same cup.
Also observe how the debacle of 2008 may be repeating but for different, yet related, reasons. That may or may not show up the same on price graphs. The conditions may be similar but the market reactions/manipulations may be far different.
What tangled webs the PTB weave in order to deceive.
As far as BTFDs goes, not to worry. The point was made some years ago that if you did nothing but BTFPs you would still look like a genius in another year or two.
Remember when various economics professors and self-anointed Ph.D'ed market timers said to sell everything because the gold 200 DMA had been breached to the downside, never to be crossed back again, to which our simple retort was, "Many are doing their damnedest Ph.D.-best to somehow fuse economic theory and technical charting, and state that a breach of the 200 DMA in gold is indicative of imminent price collapse. And then there are facts. Such as this nugget from Stone McCarthy which looks at previous episodes of the 200 DMA breach and concludes based on severity of trendline penetration compared to average, that "this is just one reason we see strong potential for a rebound as participants reduce short exposure." So much for technicals." Sure enough: less than a month later, and $100 higher, gold is right back above the 200 DMA. Oh, and we expect to hear nothing from said academics for a long time.
Having pulled the trigger for some Ag on 30-Dec, I am rather pleased to think that I may for once have actually picked a bottom instead of a top.
Hope everybody is doing okay. It's a while since we last compared notes. I for one am greatly encouraged investment-wise by my reading. I'm putting together a list of 'themes' for 2012 and will post for opinions as soon as the notes are presentable.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,040 Location: Here_&_Now Karma: 19
Re: Merry Christmas to all in the Crow's Nest « Result #17 on Dec 30, 2011, 5:03pm »
- Yeah, the wad of light strings up by the roof. I've seen several versions over the years with captions :
"Did you finally get those lights put up?" "Yes, dear."
"There! Your precious lights are "up" so now you can stop nagging me."
and the best caption of all was . . . no caption.
With all this holiday spirit verging on sickening sweetness, I wish to provide some balance by posting an actual e-mail response of mine to another well-wisher :
========================
Before I forget . . .
!!! HAPPY BOXING DAY !!!
Your holiday story of planning to install a garbage disposal got me into the spirit of the season . . . . I went shopping.
The "stockings to hang by the chimney with care" were no problem BUT, when I asked about filling them, I got blank stares. After some phone calls to higher and higher levels of management, they were finally able to direct me to their stores in West Virginia and Pennsylvania for some top quality anthracite and bituminous varieties. Phew ! That was close. I almost gave up in disgust with a hearty Bah ! Humbug !
========================
Okay, okay, enough with the negativity. To balance the mood, here are my favorite Good Wishes for all you CrowBarians :
May you always have food & shelter, Aye, and a soft pillow for yer head; And three days in heaven, Afore the Devil knows yer dead.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,825 Karma: 19
Re: Merry Christmas to all in the Crow's Nest « Result #19 on Dec 26, 2011, 10:38pm »
Quote:
"Good news is that I truly outdid myself this year with my Christmas decorations. The bad news is that I had to take him down after two days. I had more people come screaming up to my house than ever. Great stories. But two things made me take it down.
First, the cops advised me that it would cause traffic accidents as they almost wrecked when they drove by.
Second, a 55 year old lady grabbed the 75 pound ladder, almost killed herself putting it against my house and didn't realize that the man was fake until she climbed to the top (she was not happy). By the way, she was one of the many people who attempted to do that. My yard couldn't take it either. I have more than a few tire tracks where people literally drove up my yard."
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,040 Location: Here_&_Now Karma: 19
Re: On-line Video « Result #20 on Dec 15, 2011, 3:00pm »
- ... to have 75% of your assets in something that has a chart like ...
That is a graph mostly from another century; why even look at it?
The only $ price graph for gold that matters is from 1995 onward into this century. My ten-year projection for the $ equivalent gold price is 8500 +/-1000. That is the PTB target ratio between USD equivalents and gold at that time, imo.
Assuming I am right, where would you put the other 25% of your assets over the next ten years?
"The surest way to profit is to be right and sit tight." - Jesse Livermore
"Tell me when the printing will stop and I'll tell you when gold will peak."
A thought exercise for you: Assume your rich uncle dies and leaves you a treasure chest full of mostly silver and some gold coins. This is your only store of wealth for your future. Everyone tells you to diversify, diversify. Now, tell us what you would do.
UPDATE 3
Just remember that paper price volatility must go to extremes when the world's monetary system is crashing, burning, and preparing for a whole new/old paradigm called gold/silver backed money. You were expecting a smooth transition for something that happens only once every 300 years? -
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Female Posts: 246 Karma: 16
Re: On-line Video « Result #21 on Dec 14, 2011, 11:06am »
I think I heard Martenson say he has 75% of his assets held in gold and silver. Somehow, that seems extremely precarious given this chart from Kitco: http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx (gold chart 1975 - present)
No matter what you think is going to happen, or how fictionalized the inflation rate is, to have 75% of your assets in something that has a chart like this is - nuts.
Since my own asset allocation is looking a bit lopsided in this regard, I'd love to hear rebuttals...
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 1,825 Karma: 19
Re: An interesting conspiracy theory « Result #25 on Nov 22, 2011, 4:00am »
Say Denarius,
You might get a chuckle from this. Jim Willie echoed your sentiment earlier this month:
Quote:
My view is that Chilton is the false public champion put forth so that people can be led to believe that the corruption has a hard charging white knight. The Jackass [JW] maintains that the face of Bart Chilton is reminiscent of a Star Trek character.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 351 Karma: 16
Re: What effect will boomers have on Capital marke « Result #29 on Nov 17, 2011, 11:39am »
I guess you're right, Lore, a lot of people don't have anything to dump.
'Normal' retirees will dump, maybe $1,000/month.
I find myself in another group: one that is disgusted with low returns and high risk. I am negative on the stock market, funds, CDs, & etc.
So what does one do with their money after dumping? Obviously, pay off the mortgage and then the rest of the debts.
Then what?
Eric Sprott answered, For liquidity there is precious metals. One could buy farmland. But that isn't liquid. Farmland is an investment.
Interesting Turk - Sprott clip. Turk is an inflationist, but gives Eric Sprott (a deflationist) the spotlight. Yet, they both are PM bugs. Sprott makes the point in this video that there is extreme risk in banks and no interest for taking that risk. What are your options to a bank if you want liquidity? Gold and Silver. That's it!
I would really enjoy Turk & Sprott debating the inflation-deflation question.
You assume that everybody in that wave of retirees will "dump." More (much more) than half of those people have little if anything to dump. Liquidation of just a few $B by local retirees is a minor factor in the grand liquidation and repudiation ahead. There probably will be an exodus out of mainstream investments that have generated unsatisfactory returns. Consider: $10K in Sprott's PM fund ten years ago is worth $75K today. I would expect some kind of run out of mainstream paper - and real estate - into things that show real returns going forward. PMs presently constitute something like 1.7% of retirement investment across North America. Bump that even a little and you are looking at the manifestation of our fabled "Phase 3" in the Gold and Silver bull, concurrent with loss of faith in most institutions and segments of the economy.
I submit that most investments that will be held back are already pricing in such activity. Consider recent movement in the bond market. The market is smarter than any of us.
Addendum: James Turk and Eric Sprott recently provided what is probably the best overview in recent memory of things to come. It's well worth the half hour:
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