California voters have crushed efforts by elected leaders to patch a gaping hole in the state budget with a package of ballot measures that included borrowing, extending $16 billion worth of taxes and promising to reform future budgets with a reserve fund and a spending cap.
With about a quarter of the state's precincts in as of 9:30 p.m., the Secretary of State's Office reported none of Propositions 1A through 1E were garnering more than 41 percent of the vote. Only Proposition F, which would freeze the salaries of state elected officials in bad budget years, was winning - and it was winning big. ... Defeat of the measures would mean a projected $15.4 billion gap in the state's budget would grow to $21.3 billion. The governor has proposed that if the propositions fail, the lost revenues would be made up by cutting an additional $2.3 billion from elementary and high schools and community colleges; borrowing $2 billion from cities and counties; transferring some state prison inmates to county jails and some illegal immigrant prisoners to federal custody, and slicing deeper into health, social services and other programs. ... Three of them proposed to raise money right away by shifting revenues from two special funds and the state lottery. One contained $16 billion in extensions of temporary tax increases, along with the promise of a rainy day reserve fund and a cap on spending in future years. One pledged to settle a dispute between the education industry and state officials by paying schools $9.3 billion over a four-to-five year period starting in 2011. And one promised to freeze the pay rates of legislators and constitutional officers in years the state's coffers were running low. Only the last of these was being approved.
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Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #121 on Jun 1, 2009, 3:38pm »
Mainstream media is sidelining these sorts of segments and appears to be pushing the "Recovery" message very, very hard. How much of this is the reflection of plain ignorance, and how much is intentional conspiratorial dishonesty? Does anyone else find this infuriating?
Mainstream media is sidelining these sorts of segments and appears to be pushing the "Recovery" message very, very hard. How much of this is the reflection of plain ignorance, and how much is intentional conspiratorial dishonesty? Does anyone else find this infuriating?
One has to wonder how it is these people wind up in a camp. Don't they have any Relatives? Friends? or Church?
Modern culture has isolated us from the community of relatives friends and church. So these people are probably sufficiently estranged that the encampment option seems better.
The encampments also bring up the idea of self-organization. The encampment just kind-of forms. Norms of behavior develop. And community develops.
For me, homelessness is not all that bad. I do like to take a shower every day or two though. But that can be done at community colleges' or Universities' locker rooms.
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Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #123 on Jun 3, 2009, 11:33am »
My farmer friend dropped by yesterday so I pointed out my green shoots.
He said, "Those are gladiolas."
I suddenly remembered my wife having me plant gladiola bulbs. I don't really like gladiolas. True, they shoot up tall and are flashy; their stalks are sturdy. But they always bend and break at the ground. And that is why I don't like them. They're going to need propping-up.
Yesterday 10 year treasury yields went soaring and the mortgage market literally seized up. Mark Hanson at the Field Check Group has this report that I can share. ....
The gist of the article is that mortgage rates follow the ten year treasury; that ten year treasuries had jumped up enough such that mortgage applications could only be funded at much higher rates.
Applicants who had qualified for $X amount at a lower interest were unqualified at the newer rate. They would have to re-apply.
Karl Denninger tackles the rosy April pending home sales numbers. They were up, unequivocally.
Pending sales are not sales. They are pending. A pending sale is only a sales agreement that the seller and buyer have signed. It is usually subject to financing.
Lenders are taking much longer to approve loans. So a number of those April pending-sales will not be financed in June.
The good April pending-sales will not translate into real sales.
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Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #125 on Jun 17, 2009, 10:16pm »
I was in the Myrtle Beach area of South Carolina last week and did my regular interviewing of the locals about housing and the economy. Everybody agrees things are currently pretty tough economically. More for some then others. The number of closed stores at the local malls and closed restaurants is indicative to how the tourist industry is often hit first. Most of the big tourist areas were pretty quiet. Perhaps June is normally like that?There are many many homes for sale including some real mansions on the beach. Less than 200,000 for a town home on a golf course. Everybody has a different opinion as to what caused the big slowdown. Some people like Obama...some don't. I think its very much a Republican/Democrat thing.
But no matter how bad things get, I always see a strong and proud demographic of people there. Very friendly too. The pride of the country is alive and well ...as it is in much of the U.S.. You folks make us Canadians look like a complacent buch...which I guess we are sometimes.
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Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #126 on Jun 18, 2009, 8:19am »
In Pendleton, OR Keystone RV and Fleetwood have closed up as well as a trailer chassis plant.
Generally, house prices have not fallen. But I know of three properties that were on the market for a long time at a high-normal price. Then the sellers panicked and sold for 45%-50% of their original asking price. One was ~6 acres near the Umatilla River and railroad tracks. It had two manufactured homes, rental style, on it. For over a year it was pending at $135,000 awaiting financing. Financing never came through and an acquaintance bought it for $60,000 cash.
Another home was repo'd by a bank 8 months ago. The bank has made no effort to secure, clean up, or market the home. Due to bank negligence it probably has broken water pipes.
There's an interesting analysis of spending, plus non-intuitive points on housing.
It took all night to download it. I thought I was on dial-up! Even though I've only watched the first half, it was worth it. Here are my notes; meant as a teaser to get everyone else to watch it...
Quote:
Elizabeth Warren gives a lecture on the Collapse of the Middle Class
A 1973 mother with a 16 year old child was less likely to be in the workforce than a 2003 mother of a 6 month child.
Women have entered the workforce over the last generation.
Family savings (11% in 1973) have gone negative.
Revolving Credit has increased.
Where have families been spending?
Family Expenses 1971 v 2003 clothes -32% (we discount shop now & don't wear expensive suits anymore) 1971 v 2003 food: -18% (even though we now eat out and PAY for water) 1971 v 2003 appliances: -52% (we didn't use to have microwaves and popcorn poppers) 1971 v 2003 per car costs: -23% (we keep our cars longer)
Ordinary consumption, other than the above is generally a wash. What has increased?
1971 v 2003 Mortgage: 76% increase 1971 v 2003 Health insurance (family with employers 74%increase 1971 v 2003 Cars: +51% (although single cars are down, families need more cars to get to work) 1971 v 2003 Child care: A new expense 1971 v 2003: Taxes +25%
The downs are small purchases and discretionary. The ups are big relentless expenses.
Comment: It was very good. I am anxious to see the rest to see what Elizabeth Warren thinks is the solution.
My first critique is that the 1973 family was more frugal. Discretionary spending was lower than Elizabeth Warren thinks because it wasn't spent. It was saved.
By 1973 families were becoming more indulgent in every way. The 1950 medium house was 2 bedroom one bath. That was all that was needed Houses built in the 1960s tended towards 3 bedrooms and two baths.
The median 2003 house may not have granite counter tops, but it was financed to the max and is a far cry from what a discriminating frugal buyer would consider, or pay for.
There is nothing wrong with modern conveniences unless it is financed with debt, the money of slaves. Beginning in 1932 the federal government began subsidizing (guarantees are a subsidy) home loans. The ultimate result of the was more expensive housing for everyone.
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Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #129 on Aug 18, 2009, 9:46am »
Google now shows foreclosures (at least this is new to me). I'm not sure how comprehensive it is, but none the less, it's staggering.
http://maps.google.com then enter "real estate" in the search box. Then click the "Real Estate on Google Maps" link. Then select the foreclosure option box.
These maps will certainly make it hard to sweep how bad the RE market is under the rug. I'm thinking I should start taking screen snapshots of the areas I'm interested in. It might make for an interesting slide show going forward.
Joined: Jan 2007 Gender: Male Posts: 271 Karma: 16
Re: Housing just keeps getting worse « Reply #130 on Aug 19, 2009, 11:37pm »
I followed your Google Map foreclosure instructions and was amazed.
I zoomed in on the area I am most familiar with and to my surprise,... where there were no foreclosures on the national scale, Google Maps showed 5 foreclosures on the the neighborhood scale. Two red dots were, in fact the same house, so call it four.
I summonsed www.foreclosure.com which showed seven. Only two of which were in common with Google Maps. So between the two resources there are 9 distinct foreclosures.
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